World Health Organization (WHO) quoted: "It has become clear that containment of the swine flu outbreak is no longer feasible." WHO has raised the alert level from 3 to 4, which signifies that the virus is potential for outbreak at community level. The tourists have been urged not to set foot on Mexican soil.
The flu virus has a tendency to mutate slightly every year, creating scope for new vaccines. The cause of swine virus seems to be an antigenic shift from the usual mutation. The virus is now capable of large genetic changes at a faster pace and can spread rapidly across populations.
From reported 149 deaths in Mexico, only 20 deaths have been confirmed with potential combination of avarian, swine and human flu virus. Flu, suspected to turn into a pandemic, creates a potential market for the Relenza and Tamiflu.
Swine influenza A viruses were tested with amantadine and rimantadine but showed resistance. Latter, the N in H1N1 strain was found to be sensitive to Relenza and Tamiflu, and the patients treated with these antiviral drugs have shown positive results.
Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) were banned by many governments as it is known for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2002. But now the challenge lies in getting sufficient supply of the drug.
Though GSK has sent 100,000 packs of Relenza to Mexico and Roche claims to have three million packages on standby, of which half are held in the US and half in Switzerland, Shabeer Hussain, Frost & Sullivan programme leader pharmaceuticals and biotechnology life sciences, has shown his concern regarding the size of the drug supply. From 27 April 2009, Roche and GSK are coordinating with WHO on the swine flu issue.
The UK government claims to have enough antiviral drugs for half of its population.
On 27 April the US government declared national health emergency and confirmed 40 cases of the flu from California, Kansas, Texas and 28 in New York. The government also released a quarter of its drug stockpile.
Roche shows concern on the production process as it might take up to eight months- from drug synthesis to packaging. This has caused panic buying among the people. The company’s long lead time and the need for governments to be prepared has acted as sales pitch for the drug, causing the drug to be the most sought after drug.
In 2005, Tamiflu was being sold on eBay due to the high demands, but the reoccurrence of this has been stopped. The practice of drugs being sold on “no questions asked" basis or with a simple online questionnaire basis is now banned.
Both pharmaceutical companies are "very active" in ramping up production as supplies of Tamiflu and Relenza seem to turn to gold dust. Share prices of GSK, Roche and co-developer Gilead have rocketed.
On 27 April, San Francisco Business Times reported that Gilead shares had jumped to $47.53 from $1.73. Tamiflu is sold by F Hoffman-La Roche, which pays royalties to Gilead. A mass turn around is expected for Gilead. Earlier it announced Q1 royalties for 2009 decreased to $33.2m from $93.4m due to decreased sales related to pandemic planning initiatives worldwide.
On the other side stocks of Roche has gained 3.5% and GSK has gained 5.7%. Hussain says, however it is too early to predict any long-term share price increase. He explains: "We need to wait and watch; to see the spread of swine flu and the precautionary measures taken by the governments."
Both drugs are expensive to produce and for governments to purchase, so neither end of the deal is likely to make any rash decisions. But with mass production comes a decrease in costs and with the world watching, the decisions taken by political parties to protect their citizens are likely to be closely scrutinized by the public. For Roche, Gilead and GSK, this is no bad thing.
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